Ah, summer. The thermometer heads into the 90s, the kids are out of school and your attention turns to using up some of that vacation time. In the PCB industry, summer has traditionally been time to turn on the "out of office" e-mail auto-reply and leave the office in your rearview mirror.
But according to a lot of news reports, this summer is not such a good time for Americans.
If you pay attention to the news on the radio and TV most days, you can be forgiven for thinking that the country is in the middle of a recession. Many Americans tell pollsters that they have an unfavorable view of the economy. There are so many reports that the "man in the street" is nearly suicidal over gas prices, lost jobs, Iraq, deficit spending, et al, that I halfway expect to be dodging "jumpers" when I drive down Peachtree Street.
But things aren't always what they seem (There haven't been any jumpers in Atlanta since someone jumped off a highway overpass last year, and he survived.). Actually, the U.S. economy is going great guns; economic growth during the first quarter reached 4.8% - the hottest GDP expansion in three years. Unemployment is almost nonexistent at 4.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 11,500 in early May, a six-year high.
Some analysts say that the overheated economies of the U.S. and China are responsible for the high prices of crude oil and gasoline. It's just a matter of supply and demand, right?
And it seems to be a good time for most people involved in creating circuit boards. When was the last time you talked to a PCB designer, fabricator, assembler or supplier who was having a bad year?
The numbers don't lie:
Cadence Design Systems posted sales and profit increases year-on-year, with Q1 earnings up twentyfold from the previous first quarter. Mentor Graphics had a better-than-expected Q1, with its stock price hitting a 52-week high after announcing a quarterly loss and raising its profit outlook.
TTM's Q1 sales of $72.7 million were up 27% from last year, with net income nearly doubling year-on-year to reach $8.8 million. Park Electrochemical posted earnings of $5.7 million on revenue of $57 million for the most recent quarter, beating the street's estimates. Rohm and Haas had first quarter earnings of $207 million, up 30% from Q1 2005. Component maker Molex posted revenue of $720 million for its most recent quarter, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with profits of $61.5 million, up 37% from a year earlier.
Some of the big guys - Flextronics, Celestica and Sanmina - posted losses, mainly from charges. But Jabil's last quarterly profit reflected a spurt of 50%, leading the company to announce its first-ever quarterly dividend. And Solectron showed net income of $30.4 million for its most recent quarter, versus a net loss of $2.2 million a year earlier.
Inventories show no signs of causing any headaches. Walt Custer found electronic equipment inventories in Q1 2006 to be the lowest since at least 1992, despite rising orders.
And, though we may be loath to admit it, our industry is probably better off today because of the EU's Restrictions on Hazardous Substances (RoHS). Just as Y2K forced all of us to rethink our IT contingencies, RoHS is forcing companies to seek new technological and administrative remedies. No matter what we may think of the efficacy of RoHS, the looming lead-free directive has caused every member of the supply chain to reconsider larger issues such as regulatory compliance, liability and - if we dare - trust.
This summer is shaping up to be a good one for the U.S. economy, and for our industry. Grab the kids, hit the beach and forget about circuit boards for a while. Enjoy a vacation while you can.
It will be July 1 before you know it. Are you ready for the RoHS deadline?
