Material Gains

Alun Morgan

As the pandemic becomes endemic, restoring order to the world’s prices and supply chains will take time and won’t be easy.

As we all adjust to the reality that Covid and its derivatives are here to stay, communities around the world are beginning to rebuild economically: returning to work, reviving businesses where possible and making new plans if not.

It is no surprise materials, inventory and shipping are in short supply and are often stuck in the wrong places. In some cases, services that companies used to rely on are no longer available because the suppliers have gone out of business. Workforces are depleted, and some knowhow, skills and experience have been lost. Rebuilding is not as straightforward as opening the factory doors, picking up the tools that were put down at the beginning of 2020 and getting on with it. Even now governments are still mandating measures such as the sudden full lockdown of Shanghai, which has severely impacted road and air transport. We must still expect the unexpected!

There certainly is the opportunity to build back better, but let’s not be simplistic. The world we built was highly sophisticated and interconnected – an ecosystem of ecosystems. It won’t be easy. It will take time. New leaders and innovators need to acquire the skills required to replace those we’ve lost. And we have other challenges too, like protecting the environment and transitioning to more sustainable ways of living. As if that wasn’t enough, further new tensions are adding to the pressure on resources and, as a result, prices.


As we work to restore order, established supply chains remain disrupted or broken. Even without material shortages, the shortage of transportation creates the same effect. Companies are struggling to arrange the supplies they need to fulfill orders received from their own customers. The disruption is transmitted through the entire chain, changing the balance of supply and demand.

The effect on the automotive industry is a highly visible case. It affects everyone making, selling and buying cars. Over the past three decades or so, the electrification of mobility has provided many growth opportunities for our industry and has delivered increasingly efficient and intelligent vehicles that are more satisfying to drive, safer, more comfortable and more economical. The electrification of the drivetrain is the ultimate stage of evolution when passenger cars become, in essence, consumer electronic products.

Today’s latest models are full of chips controlling everything from mirror dimming and mood lighting to internet connectivity, high-voltage battery management and autonomous driving. Except they are not. Supply shortages mean carmakers are struggling to fulfill orders for new cars. Major manufacturers are producing fewer vehicles and prioritizing their most in-demand models because they cannot source all the electronic components needed.

On the other hand, pressures such as increasing fuel prices, legislation on emissions, and the prospects for restrictions on new combustion-engine vehicles should buoy demand for the latest most efficient vehicles. And, while customers wait, demand for used cars is increasing, driving market prices upward.

In the longer-term, semiconductor makers are working to increase capacity to service the demand. However, that takes time, and semiconductor demand will continue to grow as the leading markets reach government-imposed deadlines outlawing sales of combustion-engine vehicles.

Some of the worldwide supply problems resulting from the pandemic are short-term issues. As acceptable prices are negotiated (or alternative solutions are imagined and enacted), output resumes, and shipping returns to more normal routines, problems will subside; inflationary pressure should ease, and availability of goods and services should improve. Other changes to the established order are here to stay, some part of the new post-pandemic reality and others due to strengthening environmental protection, including an emphasis on carbon offsetting and the switch to green energy.

I’ve commented on the dynamics of supply-chain management before, and there is an even clearer justification and more urgent demand for closer collaboration between suppliers and customers to ensure the greatest possible efficiency. Sharing production plans enables partners to guarantee materials arrive in the right places at the right time. While “too little, too late” is as disastrous as always, “too much, too soon” is a luxury that, in the current economic climate, adds to costs considerably. Saving these costs through better plan and data sharing is one of the many changes we need to make as we adjust to the situation we find ourselves in. It is worth remembering the highest cost a manufacturer can experience is that of having no materials to process.

It will be difficult to definitively declare the pandemic “over.” That may be best left to the World Health Organization. We cannot beat Covid. It’s in the world, and we must live with it, but we can be encouraged we are finding ways to do this, and, as we restart economic activities, we can only be bullish, adopt the spirit of “build back better,” and strive to realize the cleaner world we want to inhabit, make use of the experiences we have gained and continue to work to make all our lives healthier, more secure, safer and happier. 

ALUN MORGAN is technology ambassador at Ventec International Group (ventec-group.com); This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Alun Morgan

The proliferation of satellites and the "orbital economy" have exciting implications for Earth – but not without challenges.

An exciting market is developing 300km above Earth. New Space promises to revolutionize the delivery of internet services and create new opportunities for Earth observation that could help us improve crop yields, anticipate natural disasters, and manage our impact on the environment. There are also opportunities for manufacturing in space, taking advantage of microgravity to produce high-purity optical fibers and materials such as graphene, semiconductors, and superconductors. The in-space, or orbital, economy is already being debated.

This commercial development of New Space, which defines low Earth orbits (LEO) in the 300km-2000km altitude range, has become possible through the ongoing democratization of rocket and satellite technology over the last few years. Until recently, space missions were mostly the preserve of government-backed organizations. Today, however, the responsibility for launching satellites, as well as taking people and supplies to the International Space Station, has become substantially outsourced to private enterprises.

The size of satellites themselves is also becoming smaller, while supporting increasingly sophisticated capabilities, allowing greater value at lower cost. Small satellites, or SmallSats, are generally considered to be less than 180kg and, in fact, have been in use since NASA’s pre-Voyager missions of the early 1970s. The category is now more subdivided than ever and contains nanosatellites less than 10kg, picosatellites in the 0.1-1.0kg range, and femtosatellites of 10-100gm, although these limits are not rigidly defined. And, of course, there are CubeSats: the scalable proposal based on a standard 10 x 10 x 10cm basic building block. These are accessible to academic groups, including schools, as well as small commercial organizations.

Read more: The ‘New Space’ Revolution

Alun Morgan

The metaverse offers opportunity for escapism and empowerment.

Market research published last summer suggests the total AR/VR market will top $700 billion by 2025, suggesting a compound annual growth rate close to 75%. Those are amazing statistics, although we know investment in virtual and augmented reality has surged during the pandemic. Spending on VR has increased, particularly among consumers constrained to stay at home for extended periods. They have time, and they’re bored. But professional applications are also expanding quickly in marketing, retail, healthcare and manufacturing.

As a concept, AR/VR is closely connected with another emerging phenomenon: the metaverse. The distinction between the two is quite blurred. The metaverse is perhaps best envisioned as an alternative reality whose scope extends throughout the entire internet and into the real world. Although there will be elements of virtual reality, and a VR headset will provide one means of entering the metaverse, the big tech giants are thinking much bigger. Facebook’s parent company has even changed its name to Meta, a clear expression of its ambitions.

We can expect this alternative reality to start becoming accessible through gaming and entertainment applications. People will exist and move around as avatars, go to shops, attend concerts. The chance to style our appearance and create our own reality is a fantastic opportunity for escapism. And who could blame anyone seeking an escape from the real real world?

Read more: Alternate Reality is Getting Very Real

Alun Morgan

Is it possible to achieve robot ethics when humans providing the framework are inherently flawed?

It has been over 80 years since Jorge Luis Borges published his short story “The Library of Babel,” and now the virtual library is open to visit. Borges described a theoretical library of books that, together, contain all possible combinations of letters in the alphabet, with a few provisos and limited punctuation. The idea was this library would contain every book, every article, song, play, etc., that has been – or ever could be – written, among an overwhelming quantity of apparently meaningless material.

It’s a mind-boggling concept, used to explore ideas of time, meaning, the human condition – behavior, frailties, the shortness of life – and our place in the universe. It’s clear this library was imaginary. Borges never expected it to exist. Now, leveraging the computing power available to us today, the website libraryofbabel.info has brought the literary concept to life as a virtual “universe.”

Seven years from now, the era of artificial general intelligence (AGI) will begin, according to Ray Kurzweil. AIs trained for specific tasks such as image, pattern or speech recognition are already in the world and routinely assisting with demanding tasks in industry, medicine, financial analysis, photography and more. Kurzweil said by 2029 a machine will be able to pass the Turing test, the so-called imitation game, in which a human interrogator questioning a machine and a human should be unable to distinguish between the two based on their responses.

Read more: Man vs. Machine: AI Will Soon Win the Imitation Game

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